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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement is handed the prize. However, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

But this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent strugglers rising in unison. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still