Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of sources also shared fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.